The Self-Publishing Train Wreck Is Upon Us – It’s Been Coming

The self-publishing train wreck

Self-publishing is evolving and suffering from growing pains. The self-publishing train wreck was always an accident waiting to happen.

Although there has been no crashing noise and screaming sirens as yet, all the signs point to the fact that the self-publishing train wreck is very close to happening.

In recent and not so recent times, several signals have turned bright and dangerously red.

But many self-publishers appear to be color blind to these signals and still think all the signals are go, go go, green.

The danger signals

But the red danger signs of the self-publishing train wreck have been appearing for some time.

Perhaps it started with the end of the Sony Reader Store in 2014. Recall that Sony was, in fact, the pioneer of the ebook.

Then we had the end of the ebook retailer, Diesel Ebooks, who kept promising to return from the dead for a long time. It finally did, but in a new form, to offer ebook stores to authors.

Soon after, Smashwords announced the loss of Flipkart and that Oyster was closing down.

On top of that, there was also the announcement that Scribd was cutting romance ebooks from its subscription service.

A little later on, Barnes & Noble dumped its UK Nook business by selling its UK Nook ebook business to a supermarket chain. The ramifications of that sale for UK Nook customers was a disaster.

If these were not signs of impending self-publishing problems, I don’t know what was.

Other than closures, interest in self-publishing also began waning, which was a sign that all is not well.


Interest in self-publishing

I only had my gut feeling about this.

But by chance, I was doing some research on self-publishing trends and came across this graph from Google Insights.

It seems to indicate that interest in self-publishing appears to be gradually falling away.

Self publishing trends

Interestingly, from the same results page of Google Insights came this graphic of regional interest for the search term of self-publishing.

It proves that self-publishing has not been a global success at all. Four countries do not add up to a global phenomenon.

self publishing geographic trends

However, with all the closures and failed ebook businesses, on top of diminishing interest and lack of global sales potential, the self-publishing train thunders along in the belief that all the lights are green.

But in fact, every signal is flashing alarmingly red. But why?


The Magical Amazon Effect

Amazon has done a splendid job of convincing self-publishers that Kindle has been such a worldwide super success and that if you hop on its magical Amazon KDP train, fame and fortune awaits.

Stories abound of superstar self-published authors who have struck it rich with Kindle ebook sales. I am sure you know all their names too, because, in reality, there have been very, very few. Make a list of them and see if you can get past five or six names.

But the dreamers have been convinced by the success stories of a few outliers. They have in countless thousands jumped headlong into KDP self-publishing with no idea at all about book marketing, but with a firm belief that if they have written a book, they will make a fortune.

Since 2009, this trend has continued unabated, with hundreds of thousands of new Kindle ebooks being published each and every year by new hopeful authors.

But the end was always in sight, and now after years of publishing far more ebooks than the market can possibly buy, borrow, get for free or read, self-publishing needs to recalibrate.


The BIG red light! Kindle Unlimited.

The last red warning light was Amazon’s Kindle Unlimited (KU).

Sure, everyone knew that ebook subscription services were coming. Although a few had tried and failed, Amazon is not one to fail.

When KU hit, it caused a huge storm of protest from self-published authors, who believed their income would take a hit.

For most, it probably did to a degree.

But that was all to change when Amazon had a change of heart after only a few months and modified the rules for KU.

It quickly dropped the promise of an author being paid per ebook borrow. It changed to Kindle Edition Normalized Pages (KENP) Read, or in layman’s terms, authors getting paid per page read.


Lower, lower, lower

So from around $1.40 per borrow, which was way below most author’s selling prices, KENP gives a return of less than $0.005 per page. Yes, under half a cent!

For a self-published author with a title priced at $3.99, it is not difficult at all to say that a return of half a cent per page is indeed a self-publishing train wreck.

In my case, I have a 290 page novel with a selling price of $4.99. But under KU, I get $1.45.

And do you think Kindle readers are silly? Of course, they happily pay $9.99 per month to get my $4.99 ebook for (next to) nothing.

So I got $1.40 under KU 1.0, and I get $1.45 under KU 2.0, so what’s the problem? Easy.

At least I got something for a borrow under the original KU, but how many readers read a whole book?

Can you imagine going to McDonald’s and saying, “Hey, I only had one mouthful of my burger and only ate half of my fries, so I’ll only pay for what I ate.

Or, if you rent a car, and you don’t drive it every day that you rent it, do you get a refund?

I have read my copy of Douglas Adams’ Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy more than twenty times.

Should I pay for every time I have read it? I have a hardcover copy of Salman Rushdie’s Satanic Verses but have never got past page 100. Should I get some money back now?

This is the problem with Kindle Unlimited, and why it will be a big problem for self-publishing authors.

It defies all free market, sales logic, and fairness. But it does obey the perverted value system of the Internet, which is that everything should be free, or very close to it anyway.


So, where does self-publishing go now?

Self-publishing as it has been since 2009 is dead. It was all so simple back then.

You wrote a book, published it, and readers bought it or not. There were no conditions attached.

Even subscription borrowing had some merit. You borrow it; I get paid.

But now, it’s a convoluted disaster. I do not want to get paid for someone reading five pages of one of my books and then thinking, “oh damn, no vampires. I’ll try another book then.”

For me, it was back to square one, and prepared to wait out the self-publishing pain ahead, the headlines, the inquiry, the aftermath, and all the squealing and yelling.

I exited KDP Select at my earliest opportunity as I enrolled under KU 1.0 when things were fair. They are not fair now.

Secondly, I reverted to open distribution of my ebooks via Smashwords originally, but I recently changed over to Draft2Digital.

This is not to say that I am thrilled with aggregation or that Apple, B&N, or Kobo offer anything startling, but at least they all honor a genuine ebook sale. If I get fewer sales, well, so be it.

Lastly, I refreshed my paperback backlist and made sure that all of my promotional links were directed not only to my ebooks but also to my paperbacks. You know real books.



When I started self-publishing, these things called books made money for me.

As I noted above with the graphic about regional interest, there is a whole world out there that still love books.

Ebooks are basically a US and UK thing. Why should I concentrate all my efforts on two countries, which are the home of Amazon and Kindle Unlimited? Together they are the cause of the loss in earnings for self-publishing authors.

No. I don’t want Amazon’s perverted half-eaten hamburger and fries ebook model, thank you very much.

I’ll wait out the disaster ahead, but with one saving grace in mind.

Self-publishing has one outstanding and unique benefit, and it is that a self-publishing author retains total rights over their ebooks and books, so they can do whatever they please.

So my pleasure is to say no thank you to your exclusivity and slashing of ebook earnings, Amazon. I’ll take my books and ebooks elsewhere.

Derek Haines

A Cambridge CELTA English teacher and author with a passion for writing and all forms of publishing. My days are spent writing and blogging, as well as testing and taming new technology.

Avatar for Derek Haines

49 thoughts on “The Self-Publishing Train Wreck Is Upon Us – It’s Been Coming

  • Avatar for Maria Renate
    July 27, 2019 at 11:08 pm

    I’ve been looking into taking my books off Amazon, reasons to de-self-publish, as it were. And believe it or not, for those of you who are “kicking ass” and “taking names,” by all means, continue to do so. I wish you the best of luck.
    I don’t know why you write, any of you.
    I write because I am good at it, because I am breathing, because it’s what I do best.
    I am, after all, only what I do, not what I dream.
    I’ve been getting a sense of trouble in the waters lately with Amazon, and not because of anything I’ve read online about it, but just my own experiences going through the self-publishing hoops. Nothing big or shocking, no red lights. More like, I’m a swimmer lost at night out in the Pacific ocean. I can’t see them, I just get a sense of movement as sharks swim by me under dark waters, knowable only as a current stirring against my legs.
    Sharks rarely eat people, but that’s no reason to tempt them if they’ve been having a slow day.
    With that in mind, be careful where you swim.
    Amazon is a very big shark.

  • Avatar for Finn Gray
    May 14, 2018 at 10:01 pm

    So, countries in which English is not the primary language don’t tend to Google the phrase “self=publishing”? Shocked, I tell you! Shocked!

  • Avatar for Derek Haines
    May 17, 2017 at 9:26 pm

    Same here, Neil. But I think I got to about 150 pages. lol

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