How do you know if you’ll have success from publishing a book? You don’t.
One fail-safe rule of publishing books is that no one knows if a book will succeed or not.
Publishing has always been a gamble. Major publishers have never found a way of knowing if they are onto a winner or not.
The only firm fact is that most new books that are published fail to sell.
Publishing is a risk
Publishers offset the risks in traditional publishing by spreading the risk, or gamble, across a portfolio of titles and hoping for a few successes.
In an article by Digital Book World regarding reader analytics and data, one paragraph encapsulates how high-risk book publishing really is.
Unfortunately, this article is no longer available, so I have removed the link.
The fundamental function of a publisher is to make a decision on what to publish (curation). Like a venture capitalist, a publisher has to select among many competing and worthy prospects to select those that have the highest probability of delivering an economic return.
Few books earn back their advances, and a publisher’s success and survival rely on a few outsized winners. This is as true for venture capitalists as it is for book publishers, record label executives, indie filmmakers, and Hollywood moguls.
It is well-known that Harry Potter was rejected many times before finding a publisher.
Also, Fifty Shades of Grey found its initial success through blogging and social media and not through a publisher.
Fifty Shades of Grey, in fact, created a new business model for traditional publishing.
It waits for self-publishing titles to succeed and then seeks to contract the authors.
In a way, this lets social media and the Internet do the hard work of sorting through the slush pile.
There is no formula for success in publishing
By whatever means, though, no one has found a formula that ensures success from publishing a book.
For self-publishers, the chances of any particular book succeeding are very slim.
However, like traditional publishing, the chances of success increase by the number of titles published.
Relying on one book for success is a long shot. But the odds get better if an author has published ten titles.
But, even if these ten books fail, self-publishers have a distinct advantage.
They have the ability to modify, improve, change and republish their books.
It’s possible to rebrand them as new books with editing, re-writing, and changing the covers and titles.
It is even possible to change the author’s name.
Using a pen name or names is a very useful means of writing in different genres and finding new readers.
From a marketing perspective, using pen names can allow an author to have a range of products suited to different market niches.
Major publishers spread the risk by publishing a lot of titles. Self-publishers have the same possibility, admittedly, on a smaller scale.
However, the same principle applies. The more books you publish, the better your chances are of success.
Related reading: The Four Essential Elements You Need To Sell Books On Amazon